Blog on the Run: Reloaded

Tuesday, October 1, 2013 7:33 pm

Why default on Oct. 17 shouldn’t necessarily create an economic crisis but probably will anyway

Shorter Dean Baker: because bankers are f—— stupid:

… it is interesting to look at the fundamentals here. The vast majority of bonds … will not have defaulted. Even the ones that are technically in default will have only lost a small fraction of their value. Think it through. You have a government bond that was supposed to have a coupon payment on October 17th which was not made because of the debt ceiling standoff. How much less are you willing to sell this bond for on October 18th? (If you say 3 percent or more, send me a note.)

While this set of events could possibly undermine the system as it functions today, if the bankers could not develop a workaround pretty quickly, they are a lot dumber than people give them credit for. …

In the current situation, does anyone really doubt that at some point the government will make the interest and principle payments on its debt? …

[But] the Wall Street boys really don’t seem to be very good with numbers. Put to the test, they may well fail.

My predictions: 1) If it comes to that, they will fail, and 2) even if they do fail, they’ll still collect big bonuses while we taxpayers clean up their mess. Again.

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