Blog on the Run: Reloaded

Sunday, November 25, 2018 8:46 pm

Some thoughts on the next president of the United States

Filed under: I want my country back. — Lex @ 8:46 pm
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Conventional wisdom has it that the next presidential campaign starts the minute a midterm has ended. I would just remind everyone that conventional wisdom hasn’t had a good year. I would also remind everyone that important statewide races remain out there for Democrats at this writing in Georgia (SOS) and Mississippi (U.S. Senate), and that I would prefer that Democrats focus for the moment on those races.

That said, the next president of the United States probably already has started running, although no candidate besides Trump has announced for 2020. So how do we want to deal with this?

A lot of people are handicapping particular candidates right now, as people who follow politics always do at this point in the election cycle. I’m going to try a different approach. I would like us to think for a minute about what the next president’s going to have to do … and once we’ve got that nailed down, then we can talk about who’s out there who 1) might be able to do that and 2) is running, likely running, or at least being talked about seriously as a candidate.

Let’s start with the obvious: The Democratic candidate in 2020 has to win, must oust Donald Trump or defeat any other GOP candidate who might replace him before the general election. Any other result is unthinkable. The nation cannot afford four more years not only of Trump’s “governance,” but also that of Republicans in general. You hear that phrase a lot in political campaigns, but on issues ranging from global warming to Russia and national security to taxes and economics, it’s simply a fact.

Beyond that salient fact, however, the next president is going to have to do what I think is almost impossible: clean up enough of Trump’s messes quickly enough, plus make significant progress on his/her own policy agenda, before the 2022 midterms heat up, to give Democrats a solid chance of prevailing in those elections.

The reason is this: Historically, Democrats don’t show up in the midterms. In the past 40 years, they’ve done it in two consecutive midterms only once, 1982/1986. The particular reasons vary from one midterm to the next, but the common theme when Democrats hold the White House is that the party fails to make enough progress on its agenda to excite the rank and file and get them to the polls. Most recently, Dems didn’t show up in the 2010 midterms because party activists were upset Obama didn’t get them a rainbow single-payer unicorn or whatever, and Republicans took the House. In 2014, Democrats didn’t show up and Republicans took the Senate as well.

So here’s what I think the next Democratic president is going to have to do: 1) make significant progress cleaning up Trump’s mess and 2) make significant progress advancing his/her own policy agenda — and do all that by no later than the spring of 2022. Otherwise, history suggests, Democrats will face major reverses in the 2022 midterms.

So what’s that going to take? Again, I’m not sure it can be done at all. But of this I am positive: It cannot be done at all by a federal government virgin. No Michael Bloomberg. No Tom Steyer. No Michael Avenatti. No Oprah.

No, doing this will require a stone political pro with deep knowledge of how policy gets made in the federal government. It also will require someone with a long list of IOUs from congresscritters in order to get progressive legislation and confirmations moved and moved quickly.

Just off the top of my head, I can think of five U.S. senators who might meet those requirements. All are women. None is Bernie Sanders.

But I’ll save name-naming for another post. In the meantime, who do YOU think fits these criteria? I’ll be interested to hear.

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