Blog on the Run: Reloaded

Monday, December 15, 2008 8:45 pm

Peak Oil ain’t here, but it’s walking up the sidewalk; or, enjoy $1.50-a-gallon gas while it lasts

Filed under: We're so screwed — Lex @ 8:45 pm
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On the one hand, George Monbiot is reputed to be the guy from whose name the word “moonbat” is derived. On the other, his source here is in a position to know when he says oil production is going to start declining too fast, too soon for our current and planned efforts to develop alternative energy sources to be able to keep up:

In the report on peak oil commissioned by the US department of energy, the oil analyst Robert L Hirsch concluded that “without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs” of world oil supplies peaking “will be unprecedented”. He went on to explain what “timely mitigation” meant. Even a worldwide emergency response “10 years before world oil peaking”, he wrote, would leave “a liquid-fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked”. To avoid global economic collapse, we need to begin “a mitigation crash programme 20 years before peaking”. If Hirsch is right, and if oil supplies peak before 2028, we’re in deep doodah.

So burn this into your mind: between 2007 and 2008 the IEA radically changed its assessment. Until this year’s report, the agency mocked people who said that oil supplies might peak. In the foreword to a book it published in 2005, its executive director, Claude Mandil, dismissed those who warned of this event as “doomsayers”. “The IEA has long maintained that none of this is a cause for concern,” he wrote. “Hydrocarbon resources around the world are abundant and will easily fuel the world through its transition to a sustainable energy future.” In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline in output from the world’s existing oilfields of 3.7% a year. This, it said, presented a short-term challenge, with the possibility of a temporary supply crunch in 2015, but with sufficient investment any shortfall could be covered. But the new report, published last month, carried a very different message: a projected rate of decline of 6.7%, which means a much greater gap to fill….

Then I asked him a question for which I didn’t expect a straight answer: could he give me a precise date by which he expects conventional oil supplies to stop growing?

“In terms of non-Opec [countries outside the big oil producers’ cartel],” he replied, “we are expecting that in three, four years’ time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline. In terms of the global picture, assuming that Opec will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well, which is, of course, not good news from a global-oil-supply point of view.”

Around 2020. That casts the issue in quite a different light. Birol’s date, if correct, gives us about 11 years to prepare. If the Hirsch report is right, we have already missed the boat.

I knew it was bad. I didn’t know it was this bad.

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