Blog on the Run: Reloaded

Tuesday, April 13, 2010 10:08 pm

We’ve seen this movie before …

Filed under: We're so screwed — Lex @ 10:08 pm

… and you’re not going to like how it ends:

As SentimenTrader points out, we are now approaching uncharted territory when it comes to speculative activity, and are back to 2000 bubble levels. “The  heavy concentration on bullish strategies, among all classes of traders, pushed the Options Speculation Index to another recent high, beyond anything we saw at the January peak or in recent weeks. The only comparison in the history that we have are the weeks around the peak in the spring of 2000.  It seems we’ve entered a whole new realm from anything we’ve seen over the past nine years, so who knows how much longer – or more extreme – this can go.”

The last time we were here, the tech bubble was about to pop and result in 50%+ losses for the Nasdaq virtually overnight. This time around, this is not a tech-isolated bubble. This is a global bubble fueled by the endless money printing insanity of the Central Bankers. When it pops it will take down every asset class with it.

I was around in March 2000. The economy, dragged down by deflating tech stocks, fell off a table, and my industry at the time, newspapers, never recovered. And this guy says this time will be worse. Yippee.


Friday, November 27, 2009 5:12 pm

Odds and ends for 11/27

  • Down in the desert: Dubai, whose potential sovereign-debt default is in today’s news, is messed up, economically and in other ways. Zero Hedge’s Marla Singer, who has spent time there, offers a pretty readable summary. Key takeaway: Dubai’s travails say a lot less about the pitfalls of capitalism than meets the eye.
  • Housing-market update: I’m not smart enough to know what to do about this, but more U.S. homes are in delinquency or foreclosure than are for sale.
  • The “deadbeat stimulus”: At least $160 billion a year.
  • Tim F. observes how the health-care reform bill is being set up to fail.
  • Martyrs: The people trying desperately to help Sarah Palin run her life are getting no help at all from the boss. I’m shocked.
  • The Obama-Bush Administration: The Obama Justice Department’s arguments against exoneration for former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman are being prepared by the very same people involved in the original frame-up — the one in which Karl Rove was involved up to his eyeballs. So spare me all this talk about how much better things are in government now that Obama has replaced Bush.
  • So if we fire all the execs who ran the banking system into the ground, the banking system will crash and burn? Well, pardon me for agreeing with a former public official who barebacked a whore, but I’m thinking we should test that hypothesis.
  • Apologies are fine, but the Roman Catholic Church needs to take some of the time it’s spending on apologies and spend it on turning the guilty over to police. Also? Any institution with this kind of problem needs to get itself fixed before presuming to comment upon moral issues.
  • Relatedly, not only does a 2007 court filing by Bishop Thomas J. Tobin, last seen denying communion to Rep. Patrick Kennedy because Kennedy won’t oppose abortion, admit the existence of more than twice as many accused priests as the diocese had admitted just three years earlier, it also cites that high number (~125) as a reason why court-ordered disclosure of documents would be excessively “burdensome.” Awwwww …
  • Unproductive speculation: If anyone has any ideas about how to end it other than by taxing financial transactions — an idea devised in 1972 by a Nobel winner, by the way — I’m all ears. But it needs to end.

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