Blog on the Run: Reloaded

Monday, June 24, 2013 6:12 pm

“This is a uniquely bad time to buy a house.”

I’m not in the market, and if Mike Whitney’s reporting is accurate, you shouldn’t be, either:

… nearly 5 million homes are either seriously delinquent or in some stage of foreclosure. This unseen backlog of distressed homes makes up the so called “shadow inventory” which is still big enough to send prices plunging if even a small portion was released onto the market.   In other words, supply vastly exceeds demand in real terms. Now check this out from Zillow:

“13 million homeowners with a mortgage remain underwater. Moreover, the effective negative equity rate nationally —where the loan-to-value ratio is more than 80%, making it difficult for a homeowner to afford the down payment on another home — is 43.6% of homeowners with a mortgage.” (Zillow)

This might sound a bit confusing, but it’s crucial to understanding what’s really going on. While many people know that 13 million homeowners are underwater on their mortgages,  they probably don’t know that nearly half (43.6%) of the potential “move up” buyers (who represent the bulk of organic sales) don’t have enough equity in their homes to buy another house.  Think about that. Like we said,  housing sales depend almost entirely on two groups of buyers; firsttime homebuyers and move up buyers. Unfortunately, the number of potential move up buyers has been effectively cut in half.  It’s simply impossible for prices to keep rising with so many move up buyers on the ropes.

So, if “repeat” buyers cannot support current prices, then what about the other “demand cohort”,  that is, first-time home buyers?

It looks like demand is weak there, too. According to housing analyst Mark Hanson: “First-timer home volume hit a fresh 4-year lows last month and distressed sales 6-year lows”.

So, no help there either. First-time homebuyers are vanishing due to a number of factors, the biggest of which is the $1 trillion in student loans which is preventing debt-hobbled young people from filling the ranks of the first-time homebuyers. Given the onerous nature of these loans, which cannot be discharged through bankruptcy, many of these people will never own a home which, of course, means that demand will continue to weaken, sales will drop and prices will fall.

Now, despite these appalling numbers, he notes, foreclosures are down by a third from this time last year. Is it because the housing market is really any better? Nope. It’s because the fewer foreclosures the banks follow through on, the fewer losses they have to report, the more profitable they seem and the bigger the bonuses their executives can then claim. The technical term for this behavior is “securities fraud,” and it looks as if every major bank is involved to a greater or lesser degree.

But by all means, let’s reduce enforcement on banks and mortgage companies. Free markets! Murca, hail yeah! Who cares if millions of homeowners and would-be homeowners get hurt?

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